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Social Media on the Gartner Hype Curve

Posted August 18th, 2008 by Brian Cavoli

I’ve always been a big fan of the Gartner Hype Curve. It is an effective tool to visualize the evolution of the technologies around us so we can separate the hype from the business reality.

If you are not familiar with the hype curve, it is Gartner’s way of representing the maturity and business adoption of a group of technologies. There are 5 stages in the curve that represent the rise of a technology to a period of over-enthusiasm and “hype”, to a rapid decline period of disillusionment when it falls short of expectations - to a time of enlightenment when it evolves to become widely accepted and valuable for businesses.

Wikipedia has this explanation of each of the 5 stages:

1. “Technology Trigger” — The first phase of a hype cycle is the “technology trigger” or breakthrough, product launch or other event that generates significant press and interest.

2. “Peak of Inflated Expectations” — In the next phase, a frenzy of publicity typically generates over-enthusiasm and unrealistic expectations. There may be some successful applications of a technology, but there are typically more failures.

3. “Trough of Disillusionment” — Technologies enter the “trough of disillusionment” because they fail to meet expectations and quickly become unfashionable. Consequently, the press usually abandons the topic and the technology.

4. “Slope of Enlightenment” — Although the press may have stopped covering the technology, some businesses continue through the “slope of enlightenment” and experiment to understand the benefits and practical application of the technology.

5. “Plateau of Productivity” — A technology reaches the “plateau of productivity” as the benefits of it become widely demonstrated and accepted. The technology becomes increasingly stable and evolves in second and third generations. The final height of the plateau varies according to whether the technology is broadly applicable or benefits only a niche market.

Gartner’s 2008 Hype Curve for Emerging Technologies was just released and it is interesting to see where our favorite social media technologies are today.

(Click the image to enlarge)

On the Way Up
Microblogging is rising rapidly just about to enter the Peak of Inflated Expectations. (some Twitter users may say its been there for a long time) Not far behind is cloud computing. Both are expected to move through the cycle rapidly reaching mainstream adoption in 2 to 5 years.

On the Way Down
Social computing platforms and video telepresence reached their hype peak and are dropping into the trough of disillusionment. Further down trough are public virtual worlds and Web 2.0. Keep in mind this is part of the evolution and each of these are expected to evolve rapidly. From the Gartner’s press release:

“Although Web 2.0 is now entering the Trough of Disillusionment, it will emerge within two years to have transformational impact, as companies steadily gain more experience and success with both the technologies and the cultural implications,”

Rising Again
Corporate blogging, wikis and social networks have been through the worst and are now on the path towards productivity. Their technologies have been through a couple generations, they are being widely adopted by consumers and companies are making them work for business.

Social media tools are some of the fastest moving technologies on this curve. Gartner has shown how important these technologies are and how critical they will be for businesses in a very short period of time. The key to success right now is to develop a strategy and set some clear objectives so you can try the various tools and technologies to see where you can make the biggest impact for your business.

If you don’t believe me… see how Groundswell author Josh Bernoff combines social media strategies in this short video.